Arkisto kategorialle ‘peliteoria’

Lottoa ilmaston muutoksella

08.11.2009

No nyt se sanottiin ääneen, mitä olen itsekin pienessä mielessäni miettinyt: onko meillä todellakin varaa veikata sen puolesta että ilmaston lämpeneminen ei olekaan meistä kiinni:

The thing is with climate change, we do not know the outcome. We are part of an experiment right now, in the test tube, if you will. I don’t like that situation and bet you don’t either. If you have seen the direst predictions, then you know the situation could turn bleak quickly. Those who oppose the notion either don’t believe the current climate change is not happening, or that current changes are a normal part of global function. Many of them think we are on a course of destruction by trying to save ourselves from something that will never happen.
Regardless of where you stand, for, against, or uncertain, this video will help you gain perspectice on what the real options are for the argument either way.

Game Theory

05.07.2006

Embracing the Strategic Tool That Is Game Theory

Game theory might sound esoteric, but game theorists see it as nothing less than a way to analyze almost any kind of human interaction. Aumann, for example, has defined game theory as “The study of interactions from a rational viewpoint…In other words, we ask, what is best for people to do when there are other people, other decision-makers, other entities who also optimize their decisions? Game theory is optimal decision-making in the presence of others with different objectives.”

Lue lisää: http://www.bettermanagement.com/library/library.aspx?pagetype=1&libraryid=13577

Tietämättömyyden hallintaa

25.05.2006

Donald Rumsfeld on voittanut tietämättömyyden hallinnan viitekehyksen julkistaessaan Foot in Mouth -palkinnon jo vuonna 2003 lausuttuaan kuuluisan lauseensa

Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know.

Itse asiassa häntä pilkanneet eivät tulleet ajatelleeksi että itse asiassa hänen lauseessaan on paljonkin järkeä. Ajatus on lähes yksi yhteen Michael Zackin kirjoituksen kanssa: Managing Organizational Ignorance. Siinä hän luo viitekehyksen, jolla organisaatio kykenee puuttumaan tietämättömyyteen.

The strategic challenges faced by organizations can be framed in knowledge-based terms such as uncertainty or complexity. For example, the competitive landscape may be considered highly uncertain because the organization doesn’t know enough to predict how competitors will act. It may be seen as complex because the problems it poses cannot be addressed by known and familiar solutions. Uncertainty, complexity and related terms such as dynamism, volatility and ambiguity can serve as powerful indicators of an organization’s knowledge or ignorance. These ways of describing what is known or not known have been inconsistently and imprecisely defined in the popular and academic management literature, however, so there are few coherent prescriptions on how to manage them. Consequently, organizations often end up implementing knowledge management solutions that may not be appropriate to their particular knowledge problems. What is needed is a coherent framework for describing and managing organizational ignorance.

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Muuta kirjallisuutta tästä aiheesta löytyy paljonkin:

Lähde: The Green Chameleon

Patrick Lambe jatkaa tuosta Rumsfeldin kuolemattomasta lauseesta pitkälti edellisen perusteella ja saa aikaan seuravanlaisen viitekehyksen:

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As the diagram suggests, the Rumsfeld Ignorance Management Framework is all about dynamics: prospecting in the unknown unknown domain to generate useful questions, which can be sourced in the known unknown domain, and brought across to the known knowns for application and use. Similarly, with internally held knowledge, auditing and publicising the presence of relevant knowledge, so that it too can become incorporated into known knowns and usefully applied. It’s all about enlarging the known knowns domain through disciplined practices and activities in the domains of ignorance.

Patrickin tarkempi selitys kuvalle löytyy täältä.


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