Robert May kommentoi mielenkiintoista tutkimusta, jonka mukaan liiketoimintastrategiat, joiden perusoletuksena on toimijoiden rationaalinen päätöksenteko, voivat olla hyvinkin harhaisia:
In many decision-making situations, decision makers begin with a set of beliefs and subsequently gather additional information to update their prior beliefs before making decisions. Confirmatory bias is the tendency of decision makers to favor their prior beliefs (or working hypotheses) much more than normative models would dictate. Most of the traditional models in marketing, statistics and economics model the decision makers as engaging in optimal data collection and employing Bayes’ Rule to update the prior beliefs in the light of new data. For example, in models of search (e.g. Weitzman, 1979), consumers use Bayes’ rule to revise their priors about other stores’ prices after finding the price at a store, and then decide whether to search further.
However, a large literature in psychology has accumulated a substantial body of evidence that decision-makers tend to overweigh their prior beliefs or existing hypotheses.
Lue koko tarina: How Behavioral Anomalies Affect Your Strategy
